With our CIO, David Cooke, currently travelling the Norwegian fjords, this month’s reflections come from the Head of Research, Charlie Ambler.
Whilst the weather in July, here in the UK, has been wholly underwhelming, inflation data did its best to brighten the mood and lift some of the gloominess in stock and bond markets alike. It’s taken well over a year for the UK to have some positive inflation news, but in July it came pouring in. Both headline and core CPI data came in below expectations and, in a world where -0.1% undershoots (versus estimates) can be material for markets, the -0.3% and -0.2% misses respectively were very well received. None more so than by the Bank of England, which had spent the last 14 consecutive months hiking rates in an attempt to curb rising inflation. Unlike across the pond, the UK was yet to see any meaningful downward shifts, having peaked at over 10% earlier in the year and, rather even more worryingly, having stayed flat between April and May, at 8.7%. June’s inflation print (released in July) offered hope that the rate hikes were beginning to work in their intended fashion: reducing spending; promoting saving; and, hopefully, allaying fears of a spiral.
Critics of the recent monetary policy shifts suggested that the current plan was doomed from the start, as the Bank of England was tackling a supply-based issue with demand-focused measures. The latest data would suggest that there is clearly merit in the approach they have taken. However, bearing in mind food and beverage inflation still remains north of 15%, there continue to be major challenges ahead. None more so than the fact that there is a material time lag between a rate hike and its full effects to be felt. Economists put this lag at anywhere up to 18 months. Combine this with the issue that inflation data is backward looking by a year (so the latest point is the difference in prices between June 2022 and June 2023) and its not hard to see why it’s so difficult for Central Banks to get it right. Imagine you are driving a car, but you are only allowed to look out the back window and any changes you make to steering or speed are delayed by an unknown amount of time!