Asset allocation update How we're thinking about markets...

Source: Saltus, Trading Economics

Inflation is steadily weakening across major economies, albeit at a higher level than central banks would ideally like. In the US, the December print came in at 2.7%, and markets expect it to fall below target over the next year, despite the strong economy Trump is projecting ahead of the November midterms.

Europe and Japan are also seeing continued disinflation, reinforcing the view that global price pressures are normalising. In the UK however, inflation remains sticky above target at 3.4%, highlighting the difficulty the Bank of England is having in squeezing inflation out the system.

Source: Saltus, Trading Economics

Labour markets remain generally robust but are showing signs of cooling. In the UK, unemployment has been edging higher and vacancy numbers are declining, particularly in entry‑level roles. The US job market is softening too, though from a position of relative strength. Europe displays more mixed conditions, with some regions showing surprising strength but an overall picture of gradual weakening. Japan remains the outlier, with a tight labour market and only modest signs of easing.

Source: Saltus, Trading Economics

Despite there being limited signs of major economies slowing (aside from China) or heading towards recession, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England delivered additional rate cuts in December.[1] [2] These decisions were finely balanced, but the rationale was to support momentum while inflation is drifting back towards target and growth indicators are softening.

While one or two further cuts remain possible, we believe the global easing cycle largely peaked in 2025. The year ahead will be a pivotal one for the world’s largest central bank, as markets assess what Kevin Warsh’s recent nomination may signal for the direction of future monetary policy.

Source: Saltus, Bloomberg.

A New Age of Alliances

Another defining theme of the past year has been the reshaping of global economic alliances. As traditional trade relationships come under strain, countries are beginning to look beyond established partners and towards more flexible, pragmatic arrangements. The improvement in relations between Canada and China is testament to this.

During his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Prime Minister and former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, outlined a clear vision for this evolving global order. He argued that the US‑centred trade system that has dominated global commerce for decades is becoming less dependable, and that mid‑sized economies must respond by building broader trade relationships.[4] The aim, he suggested, is not to abandon globalisation, but to reduce over‑reliance on any single partner and create greater resilience to political and economic shocks.

This philosophy quickly translated into policy. In early January, Carney visited President Xi in China, the first Canadian Prime Minister to do so since 2017.Canada lowered tariffs on a limited quota of Chinese electric vehicles to just over 6%, a marked contrast to the 100% tariff enforced on them by the US. In return, China significantly reduced tariffs on Canadian canola and other agricultural exports.

The UK appears to be moving in a similar direction. At the end of January, Prime Minister Keir Starmer travelled to Beijing to meet President Xi, the first step toward warming a relationship that has been strained for several years. Although specific policy commitments remain unclear, the visit reinforces the broader trend identified by Mark Carney. Countries are increasingly looking to diversify their trade ties rather than depend heavily on a single partner.

For investors, the reshaping of global alliances strengthens the case for global diversification in portfolios, providing protection as old rule books are rewritten.

Below is a summary of our views for each asset class, from strongly negative (- -) to strongly positive (+ +).

Summary

The Konwave Gold Equity Fund is an actively managed strategy focused on investing in gold‑related equities across the mining value chain, including producers, development assets, and exploration companies, with a clear emphasis on small- and mid‑cap opportunities. While gold is the core focus, the strategy retains the flexibility to invest in silver‑related companies.

The fund seeks to exploit inefficiencies within this segment of the market through fundamental, bottom‑up stock selection, where company‑specific factors can drive meaningful differences in outcomes.

Trium and the team

Konwave is a Swiss‑based specialist asset manager focused exclusively on precious metals and natural resource equities since its founding in 1999.

The Konwave Gold Equity Fund is managed by Erich Meier who has over 25 years of experience in commodities investing and has been responsible for the strategy since 2014. He is supported by Konwave founder Walter Wehrli, who brings over three decades of mining sector experience, and by a dedicated technical advisory function led by Andrew Kiep, a senior Canadian geologist, responsible for conducting technical due diligence across all Konwave mining funds.

Investment philosophy and process

Konwave’s investment approach is rooted in the belief that the precious metals mining sector, particularly within small‑ and mid‑cap stocks, remains structurally inefficient and therefore well suited to active management. The team follows a long term, fundamentally driven, bottom‑up process with a strong emphasis on valuation discipline, operating leverage and balance sheet strength.

A growth at reasonable price (GARP) framework is applied to identify companies where growth potential is mispriced. ESG considerations are also an integral part of the team’s research process.

Portfolios are typically constructed using 100–150 holdings, viewed collectively as a diversified basket rather than a small number of concentrated ideas, with stock selection, position sizing and cost discipline forming the core drivers of risk and return. The team maintains a deliberately contrarian stance relative to sell‑side consensus.

This combination of high active share, small‑ and mid‑cap bias and disciplined portfolio construction has historically resulted in the fund’s strongest relative performance during sustained structural bull markets in precious metals equities.

*Asset allocation by segment allocation and metal allocation as of 31^st December 2025.[5]

Performance

2025 was an exceptional year for precious metals with gold rising by 65% and silver, 148% (USD terms). As a traditional flight to safety, gold benefited from heightened geopolitical tensions instigated by Trump’s return to the White House. Investors moved assets away from traditional fiat currencies and into gold whilst central banks, particularly the Chinese, continued to stockpile bullion further pushing up prices.

Gold mining equities tend to behave as a high‑beta expression of the underlying gold price due to the operating leverage embedded within miners’ cost structures, so it was unsurprising to see the FTSE Gold Mines Index return 156% (GBP terms) for the year.

Pleasingly, and as outlined in the philosophy, the Konwave Gold Equity fund was well positioned to benefit from the structural bull market given its exposure to the small-, mid- cap, value segment of the market, returning +181% (GBP terms) in 2025 – significantly outperforming its benchmark.

*Performance, %, reflects the Konwave Gold Equity I EUR Fund hedged in GBP as the GBP share class was only launched in 2024. Benchmark performance represents the FTSE Gold Mines Index in GBP.

Source: Saltus, Bloomberg.

Saltus rationale

We see the Konwave Gold Equity fund as best in class, run by a highly skilled manager, demonstrating a clear process that adds value over time. Whilst we seek exposure to precious metals, to provide diversification in our portfolios, we believe Konwave is well positioned to deliver on its mandate.