UK house prices stagnate in September amid budget uncertainty

For the most accurate view of house price movements, the UK House Price Index (UK HPI) is considered the gold standard. It draws from completed transactions recorded by HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland. However, this data comes with a significant time lag, typically several months, making it more useful for retrospective analysis.⁴ Looking ahead, we will receive the definitive September 2025 house-price figures in November 2025, when HM Land Registry makes its dataset of completed sales public.

What’s behind the stagnation?

Although Halifax and Nationwide show differing short term movements, the broader picture points to a broadly stagnant market, with house prices neither rising rapidly nor falling sharply. While not a dramatic correction, they reflect a period of softness with house purchases hovering around 65,000 cases per month, similar to the average pre-pandemic in 2019.[5][6]

A couple of factors may be at play:

• Interest rates remain elevated: While the Bank of England has paused further interest rate hikes, mortgage affordability remains a challenge for many buyers. Higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on demand. That said, there are signs of gradual improvement in affordability. Currently, the average two year fixed mortgage rate stands at around 4.37% in September 2025 – a modest decline from levels above 5% seen in mid-2024.[7]
• Seasonal Trends: Historically, the property market tends to cool in August and early autumn. Some of the current dip may simply reflect this annual cycle.[8]

However, beneath the headline figures is a key driver: much of the apparent stagnation stems from the performance of higher-value homes.

According to recent data from Zoopla, demand for homes priced over £500,000 has dropped by 4% compared to the same period last year. New listings in this price bracket have also fallen by 7%, with the impact even more pronounced for properties over £1 million.[9]

This softening at the top end of the market is likely being driven by pre-Budget uncertainty. With the 2025 Autumn Budget looming closer (you can read our Budget predictions here: The Autumn Budget 2025 : Predictions and possibilities | Saltus), speculation around potential changes to stamp duty, mansion tax, or other property levies may have caused some buyers and sellers to pause their plans.[10] In times of fiscal uncertainty, this type of “wait and see” behaviour is not uncommon.[11]

What it means for financial planning?

While it can be fairly easy to get caught up in short term fluctuations, overall current market conditions remain relatively mild and stable. This isn’t a cause for concern, but rather a moment to take stock and plan proactively. Depending on your situation, you may want to consider the following:

• For homeowners, property remains a long term asset. However, it might be wise to review your mortgage if you’re nearing the end of a fixed rate. And if you were planning to sell in the near future, a conversation with a financial adviser can help you assess the best route forward.
• For buyers, a quieter market could offer more room for negotiation. Lenders are still active, and deals may be able to be found.
• For investors, the fundamentals matter more than short term price movements. If you’re considering a buy-to-let or diversifying your portfolio, now might be a suitable time to re-evaluate your strategy with a focus on yield and resilience. As always, financial advice can be valuable in helping you make well-informed decisions.

Putting the market into perspective

Whether house prices rise by 0.5% or fall by 0.3% in a given month is less important than ensuring your financial plan is robust and adaptable to your changing needs. If you feel uncertain about current market conditions, taking a longer term view and seeking advice tailored to your circumstances is key.